Freitag, 2. März 2018

Decision Method: Throw a Coin but Don’t Look at the Result

Gerd Gigerenzer, Risk Savvy:

"Some people, however, have lost the ability to listen to their inner voice. The voice continues to speak but can no longer be heard. A friend of mine once had two girlfriends—one too many. Ominous clouds of trouble were gathering on the horizon. Still he could not make up his mind. Finally, he recalled what he had learned as a student: Franklin’s bookkeeping method. He sat down and wrote the names of both women on a balance sheet, then drew a line between them. Then he thought of all the reasons for and against each, weighed them, and made the calculation. When he saw the result, something unexpected happened: An inner voice told him that it was not right. His heart had already decided for the other woman.
If you are having difficulties hearing your inner voice, there is a much faster method: Just throw a coin. While it is spinning, you will likely feel which side should not come up. That’s your inner voice. You don’t have to make any complicated calculations to hear it. And you don’t have to bother looking whether heads or tails came up.
Psychological deafness can be the result of a one-sided education in “rational” argumentation. I have seen quite a few cases where people tried to be level-headed and weigh all pros and cons they could think of. But while writing the numbers down, they felt that the answer was not coming out right and simply changed the numbers to make the result fit their intuition."

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