Robin Hanson:
"When the first person in our community meets a stranger, their judgment of that stranger is little constrained by needing to be consistent with their own prior judgements, nor with the prior judgements of others. Though they will feel constrained by what they expect to be later judgements by themselves and others. Later judgements that they can guess at now by looking at initially visible features.
But once we or others in our community, especially well-judged folks, have made prior judgements about someone, we feel constrained in our own future judgements to not deviate too far from those prior judgements. Especially when such prior judgments are more confident. Such deviations tend to count against us when others judge us."
"To watch and be ready for possible reversals, wherein someone who gave poor first impressions shows themselves to be a valuable late bloomer. Those with initially good features according to the local coordination will tend to avoid such areas of life, while those who did not have them will tend to out such areas of life."
"Thus first-impression and late-bloomer effects are in fact biases on net, and these biases are lower the more it becomes possible to prove one’s value clearly later in life, regardless of one’s first impressions."
[I really like the idea that earlier judgments put some constraints on later judgments. And that judgments of folks who surround us also put some pressure on our judgments.]
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