"This does not look good. Only a god can save us. A miracle pill. Genetic interventions. Positive birth policies. All such far-reaching measures will also have undesirable side effects. They would be controversial in any case. Perhaps the result may seem a bit gloomy to some readers. Or implausible, not conceivable. A similar paper for Denmark by Helmuth Nyborg in 2012 caused an academic outcry. But if one simply extrapolates the development of the last decade, in the example of Germany, one arrives at even higher losses than predicted by Nyborg: Helmuth Nyborg predicted an IQ of about 90 for the year 2100, a linear extrapolation would lead to an IQ of about 78 in Germany in 2100. That the development in recent times has been negative for Germany (or the German-speaking countries) is a consensus of the most diverse researchers, from psychology, educational economics and student assessment research, from Germany and Austria, from left to right into the middle. No matter which source or method one uses, the forecasts are gloomy. And surprisingly, no one seems to mind, as education economist Ludger Wößmann noted a few months ago: “What stirs me up is that the ministers of education accept this relegation and, after every education study, sell a partial aspect as good news. According to the motto: it’s not all that bad.” I am curious to see how people will react in the year 2100 when they read this paper."
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