Vortrag von Prof. Herwig Birg zum Thema Demografie (Jan 2015):

Neue Buchveröffentlichung (Dez 2014):
Die alternde Republik und das Versagen der Politik: Eine demografische Prognose

>Leseprobe<

Homepage von Herwig Birg:
http://www.herwig-birg.de/

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Ferdinand Knauss: Ihr Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik an der Universität Bielefeld, 1981 auf Initiative des damaligen nordrhein-westfälischen Ministerpräsidenten Johannes Rau gegründet, wurde nach Ihrer Emeritierung eingestampft.

Herwig Birg: Damals gründete man Institute noch auf Grund rationaler Argumente. Unser interdisziplinäres Institut mit fünf Wissenschaftlern war unabhängig von den Universitätsfakultäten und funktionierte tadellos. Doch es wurde von der CDU-Landesregierung unter Jürgen Rüttgers nach meiner Emeritierung aufgelöst – gegen alle Empfehlungen wissenschaftlicher Gremien innerhalb und außerhalb der Universität. Das gleiche geschah mit den demographischen Lehrstühlen der Universitäten in Bamberg und Berlin. Es gibt da ein großes Einvernehmen aller großen Parteien. In derselben Zeit wurden übrigens Dutzende von Lehrstühlen für Gender-Forschung geschaffen. An Geldnot lag es also nicht.

People talk slow:

There is a certain risk that viewing a talk (even if its content is interesting) gets boring after a short period of time. The reason for that phenomenon: people talk slow. If we read a book, we usually receive much more (relevant) information per time unit than when we listen to a talk. (That's likely the reason why reading books or articles is in general more stimulating than listening to talks.) A sometimes useful "solution"/improvement: e.g. for youtube-vidoes: (A) click at settings (the gear wheel icon) (B) set speed at 1.25;

[via Emil Kirkegaard]

Playfulness:

"[One] of the defining features of play ... is its sensitivity to prevailing conditions. In general, play is an indicator of psychological and physical well-being (Held & Spinka, 2011). It is usually the first activity to disappear if the individual is stressed, anxious, hungry or ill."

Source:

Play, Playfulness, Creativity and Innovation

Patrick Bateson (2014) 

The Child Quality-Quantity Tradeoff, England, 1750-1879: Is a Fundamental Component of the Economic Theory of Growth Missing?

The Child Quality-Quantity Tradeoff, England, 1750-1879: Is a Fundamental Component of the Economic Theory of Growth Missing?
Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins (March 2015)


Abstract

A child quantity/quality tradeoff has been a central to economic theorizing about modern growth. Yet the evidence for this tradeoff is surprisingly limited. Measuring the tradeoff in the modern era is difficult because family size is chosen endogenously, and family size is negatively associated with unmeasured aspects of family “quality.” England 1770-1880 offers an opportunity to measure this tradeoff in the first modern economy. In this period there was little association between family sizes and family “quality”, and if anything this association was positive. Also completed family size was largely randomly determined, varying in our sample from 1 to 18. We find no effect of family size on educational attainment, longevity, or child mortality. Child wealth at death declines with family size, but this effect disappears with grandchildren. The switch in England in the Industrial Revolution to faster growth rates thus seems to owe nothing to declining family size.

Statistical Misconceptions

Statistical Misconceptions
Schuyler W. Huck (2008)

Amazon; libgen;

website;

Western Europe, state formation, and genetic pacification

Western Europe, state formation, and genetic pacification
Peter Frost & Henry C. Harpending (2015)

Abstract

Through its monopoly on violence, the State tends to pacify social relations. Such pacification proceeded slowly in Western Europe between the 5th and 11th centuries, being hindered by the rudimentary nature of law enforcement, the belief in a man’s right to settle personal disputes as he saw fit, and the Church’s opposition to the death penalty. These hindrances began to dissolve in the 11th century with a consensus by Church and State that the wicked should be punished so that the good may live in peace. Courts imposed the death penalty more and more often and, by the late Middle Ages, were condemning to death between 0.5 and 1.0% of all men of each generation, with perhaps just as many offenders dying at the scene of the crime or in prison while awaiting trial. Meanwhile, the homicide rate plummeted from the 14th century to the 20th. The pool of violent men dried up until most murders occurred under conditions of jealousy, intoxication, or extreme stress. The decline in personal violence is usually attributed to harsher punishment and the longer-term effects of cultural conditioning. It may also be, however, that this new cultural environment selected against propensities for violence.

Individual differences in accurately judging personality from text

Individual differences in accurately judging personality from text
Judith A. Hall, Jin X. Goh, Marianne Schmid Mast, and Christian Hagedorn (2015)

Journal of Personality

Abstract

Objective: To examine correlates of accuracy in judging Big Five traits from first-person text excerpts.

Method: Participants in six studies were recruited from psychology courses or online. In each study, participants performed a task of judging personality from text and performed other ability tasks and/or filled out questionnaires.

Results: Participants who were more accurate in judging personality from text were more likely to be female; had personalities that were more agreeable, conscientious, and feminine, and less neurotic and dominant (all controlling for participant gender); scored higher on empathic concern; self-reported more interest in, and attentiveness to, people's personalities in their daily lives; and reported reading more for pleasure, especially fiction. Accuracy was not associated with SAT scores but had a significant relation to vocabulary knowledge. Accuracy did not correlate with tests of judging personality and emotion based on audiovisual cues.

Conclusions: This research is the first to address individual differences in accurate judgment of personality from text, thus adding to the meager literature on correlates of the good judge of personality.