Das Modell:

Z.B. wir haben ein Modell, das zwischen den unabhängigen Variablen A, B und C und der abhängigen Variable Y einen gewissen Zusammenhang abbildet. Dann können wir, wenn wir nun einen konkreten Wert von A (a1), von B (b1) und von C (c1) zur Verfügung haben, durch das Modell auf den Wert von Y (y1) schließen bzw. anhand des Modells eine Vermutung bezüglich dieses Wertes aussprechen.

Aufmerksamkeit:

Die Kernaussage von Winifred Gallagher's Buch "Rapt" besteht darin, dass wir uns in hohem Ausmaß durch das festlegen, worauf wir unsere Aufmerksamkeit richten.

Mathematical Models:

Kelleher:

"In its simplest form, a mathematical model is an equation that describes how one or more input variables are related to an output variable. In this form a mathematical model is the same as a function: a mapping from inputs to outputs.

...

Once the variables in a model have a meaning, we can understand the model as describing a process through which different aspects of the world interact and cause new events. These events are then described by the outputs of the model."

Knowledge Work:

Peter Drucker:

"To be effective is the job of the knowledge worker. Whether he or she works in a business or a hospital, in a government agency or in a labor union, in a university or in the army, the knowledge worker is, first of all, expected to get the right things done. And this means simply that the knowledge worker is expected to be effective."

Ordnung:

Die zentrale Frage:

Welche Mechanismen
legen den Eintritt eines
Ereignisses fest?

Wie sind Veränderungen
miteinander verknüpft?

Allem erkennenden Denken

geht es darum, Ordnung festzustellen,

und also darum,

Ereignisketten aufzudecken.

Festgelegtheit:

Sich festlegen,
in vielem,
da führt kein Weg
vorbei.

Denken:

Man kehrt
in seinem Forschen und Denken
immer wieder zu dem zurück,
was einem interessant scheint,
besonders interessant erscheint.

Gelegenheiten:

Eine Türe geht zu.
Schließt sich.
Für die Ewigkeit.
Endgültig.

-----

Jeder Lebensabschnitt
hat seine Reize.

Doch geht es darum,
zu akzeptieren,
dass manche Türen
geschlossen sind,
geschlossen bleiben,
dass es da aber, immer noch,
und immer wieder, Türen gibt,
die sich öffnen, die weit offen stehen.

-----

Hast Du die Gelegenheit

beim Schopfe gepackt

als sie sich Dir geboten hat?

Damals, als die Gelegenheit

noch frisch war,

als Du sie, ohne weiteres,

realisieren hättest können?

-----

Tausend Türen

plötzlich zu

und Du wanderst weiter,

dennoch weiter.

Informationswert:

Warum erscheinen uns manche Aussagen so interessant?

Warum lassen uns andere Aussagen kalt?

Das individuelle Gespür für den Wert einer Aussage, das ist der Genius im Menschen.

Langfristig hat es negative Konsequenzen, in Widerspruch zu diesem Gespür zu leben.

Smart people know how the economy works

Smart people know how the economy works: Cognitive ability, economic knowledge and financial literacy

Author links open overlay panelChien-AnLin, Timothy C.Bates

Highlights

(o) Tested if cognitive ability drives economic knowledge and financial literacy.
(o) Ability strongly predicted greater economic knowledge.
(o) Ability predicted greater financial literacy.
(o) Effects on financial literacy mediated by economic knowledge.
(o) Associations not influenced by education or economic training.

Abstract

Cognitive ability correlates positively with many financial outcomes but why? One important relationship to understand is the degree to which cognitive ability is associated with greater knowledge of economics, but this has not been tested extensively. Here in two large, pre-registered studies (N = 1356), we tested the relationship between cognitive ability and both economic knowledge and financial literacy. Three predictions were key: i) Cognitive ability would show a large positive association with economic knowledge; ii) Cognitive ability would be associated with better financial literacy and iii) Greater economic knowledge would be positively associated with financial literacy. All three predictions were supported and replicated. Cognitive ability predicted economic knowledge (r = 0.37 to 0.52) independent of and with much larger effects than either educational attainment or economics courses. The findings extend effects of general ability to include greater awareness of economic functions, and improved use of economic information which improves lifetime financial wellbeing.

Uncertainty:

farnam street:

“The most practical decision-making is not making better choices, it's learning to deal with uncertainty. The most common thing holding people back from the right answer is holding on to your previous beliefs. Instead of instinctively rejecting new information, take in what comes your way through a system of evaluating probabilities.”

Begehren und Begehrtwerden:

Nicole Siller, Woman:

"Wir alle lieben das Gefühl, wenn wir uns in unserer Haut richtig wohl und sexy fühlen – und verknüpfen das meist damit, dass wir jemandem wirklich gefallen. Wenn wir merken, wir werden – von der/den „richtigen“ Personen begehrt und geliebt. Dann spüren wir uns gut und weiblich, sexy, begehrenswert. Dann ist ein Teil in uns aktiviert, der eigentlich immer da ist. Wenn wir Glück haben, bringt er uns richtig zum Strahlen. Wir sind gut gelaunt, die anderen auch – wir bekommen mehr Komplimente und sind selbst oft in unbeschwerter Flirtlaune. Man liebt es, in unserer Gesellschaft zu sein, weil wir etwas ausstrahlen, was andere auch haben wollen ..."

Verlobungsringe:

Business Insider:

"Wie die Wissenschaftler herausfanden, sind Aussehen und Preis des Rings eng miteinander verknüpft. Männer würden Frauen, die sie als attraktiv bewertet haben, einen eher teuren Ring kaufen als unattraktiveren Frauen. Frauen hingegen suchen sich wiederum dann einen teureren Ring von Männern aus, die sie als unattraktiver bewertet haben. Bei attraktiven Männern würden sie eher einen günstigeren Ring wählen."

Lesepausen:

Ich hab' mich ein paar Jahre lang eigentlich nirgends so recht eingelesen. Das waren gute und spannende Jahre. Allerdings ist schon eine gewisse Sehnsucht nun wieder aufgetaucht, mich doch einige Nachmittage oder Abende lang in Texte zu vertiefen, um hiernach, im Anschluss dann, ein paar Überlegungen zu diesen Texten auszuarbeiten. So lange solch eine Ausarbeitung nicht geschieht, bleibt das Wissen zu Themen doch recht an der Oberfläche.

Nun, mal sehen, was sich da so ereignen wird.

Dominance and Play Behavior:

"If one rat is only 10 percent larger than the other, he can pretty much win every physical contest, every rat wrestling match - but they still wrestle to find out, and the larger rat almost inevitably pins the smaller.

...

Once dominance is established, the rats can play ... something they can do in a manner very different from genuine fighting ... Now, the larger rat could pin the smaller rat every time. However, that breaks the rules ... Ther purpose of the repeated game is not dominance, but continuing play. This is not to say that the initial dominance is without significance. It matters ... However - and this is a critical issue - if the larger rat does not let the smaller rat win the repeated wrestling matches some substantial proportion of the time (Panksepp estimated 30 to 40 percent of the tome), the smaller rat will stop exhibiting invitations to play. It is just not any fun for the little guy."

Wrecked by Success? Not to Worry

H J Kell et al, 2022

Abstract

We examined the wrecked-by-success hypothesis. Initially formalized by Sigmund Freud, this hypothesis has become pervasive throughout the humanities, popular press, and modern scientific literature. The hypothesis implies that truly outstanding occupational success often exacts a heavy toll on psychological, interpersonal, and physical well-being. Study 1 tested this hypothesis in three cohorts of 1,826 high-potential, intellectually gifted individuals. Participants with exceptionally successful careers were compared with those of their gender-equivalent intellectual peers with more typical careers on well-known measures of psychological well-being, flourishing, core self-evaluations, and medical maladies. Family relationships, comfort with aging, and life satisfaction were also assessed. Across all three cohorts, those deemed occupationally outstanding individuals were similar to or healthier than their intellectual peers across these metrics. Study 2 served as a constructive replication of Study 1 but used a different high-potential sample: 496 elite science/technology/engineering/mathematics (STEM) doctoral students identified in 1992 and longitudinally tracked for 25 years. Study 2 replicated the findings from Study 1 in all important respects. Both studies found that exceptionally successful careers were not associated with medical frailty, psychological maladjustment, and compromised interpersonal and family relationships; if anything, overall, people with exceptionally successful careers were medically and psychologically better off.

The Tomorrow-Self:

farnam street:

"There is a constant battle in all of us between our today-self and our tomorrow-self.

Today-self is like our inner child. Today-self cares only about today. It wants to focus on things that offer an immediate payoff. Whether that’s kicking back with a few too many glasses of wine, spending money on status symbols, or avoiding doing things that can be done tomorrow. Tomorrow-self is like our inner adult.

Tomorrow-self cares about things that take time to get results — like working on your relationship, saving money, or consistently moving the project forward one inch at a time.

Imagine you are tasked with building a brick wall. Today-self looks at the empty space in disbelief, discouraged at the size of the project. Today-self decides to start tomorrow. Only tomorrow never comes because the empty space again seems insurmountable. Today-self decides to talk about the wall they’re going to build, as if it were the same as building the wall. It’s not.

Tomorrow-self knows that no one builds a wall all at once. It’s going to take a month of consistent effort from the time you start before it’s done. Tomorrow-self wishes you’d stop thinking about the wall and focus on one brick.

Everything is a matter of perspective. Where you focus determines what you see. It’s easy to get lost in the magnitude of what you’re doing and completely ignore how it gets done. Focusing on the wall makes the task impossible. You have to focus on the brick.

The lesson applies to everything. If you’re writing a book, focus on writing the best paragraph and not the entire book. If you’re playing sports, focus on the next play and not winning the game. If you’re starting a company, focus on delighting one customer. Or, if you’re my kids, don’t focus on the pile of T-shirts to be folded, focus on one shirt.

Don’t focus on the enormity of the task, rather focus on the smallest thing you can do that moves you forward. As the momentum builds, things get easier. The second paragraph is easier to write than the first. The second T-shirt is easier to fold than the first. The second brick is easier to lay than the first.

Grasping this concept and applying it to what you’re doing is the key to accomplishing anything. Focus on a small but critical part of the task that moves you forward. Execute. Repeat. The logic is simple but not simplistic.

The wisdom of tomorrow-self is this: Focus on one thing you can do today to make tomorrow easier. Repeat."

Einsatz, Involviertheit, Erfolge, Misserfolge und Risiko:

Und setzt Du nicht dein Leben ein,
Nie wird es Dir gewonnen sein!

~ Friedrich Schiller

Es ging um nichts. Nie ist es um etwas gegangen.

Seine Kräfte lernt man erst kennen, wenn man

auf's Ganze geht, und wenn dann,

falls sich ein Misserfolg einstellt,

sich tatsächlich ein großer Misserfolg einstellt

oder einstellen kann.

Und was hat es mit Personen auf sich,

die ihr ganzes Leben lang nie, in keiner Angelegenheit,

je auf's Ganze gehen?

Focus:

farnam street:

"In every area of life, there is a hidden asymmetry. If you apply your focus like everyone else, you will get the same results as everyone else. Understanding where to apply your focus makes a massive difference in results.

Everyone knows that focus matters. Most people don’t know where to focus. Telling people “to focus more” is about as helpful as telling them to “make better decisions.” Common advice but useless in practice.

Not all focus is equal. Some focus is asymmetric. Knowing where to focus makes a difference.

How do you know where to focus? The answer is a deep fluency in the problem. You need to embed yourself in the problem and the details. You need to try things, reflect, and learn. Sooner or later, you start to understand the hidden asymmetry.

A lot of business people treat all decisions the same, no matter the implications. They’ll spend as much time trying to decide a trivial decision as a major one. A lot of authors focus on the work and miss that how it’s positioned for the audience matters more. A lot of people go to the gym 4 days a week only to miss that what goes into their body and the amount of sleep matter more.

The visible problem might appear to be a lack of focus, but the invisible problem is often not knowing where to focus to get the best results.

In any field, a few areas of focus make an asymmetric difference. Often they're hiding in plain sight and ignored by most.

One place to find asymmetry is to listen to people talk about others' success … “that book sold a lot, but did you read it, it’s not well written.” That’s an indication that the quality of writing matters less than you think and something else matters more. Or consider the person that explains another person’s success away with “luck.” There might be an element of luck to it, sure, but when you pull back the curtain, I bet you discover they’re focusing a little bit more on something different. Success leaves clues.

What looks like a lack of focus is often a lack of understanding."

Speaking hard truths:

farnam street podcast:

"But I think if you're going to enter into a very consequential business relationship with somebody whether they're a client or a partner, a lot of money on the line, jobs on the line, I think it's appropriate to test that and you know I think some ways to do that, I don't think it's appropriate to lie, but I think speaking a hard truth is one of my favorite ways to do that, speaking a hard truth right up front and just seeing what it does, like seeing what happens um and you know sometimes you can tell based on the reaction, well if I'm not able to speak truthfully to this person, it's hard to imagine that we'd be able to have a healthy four or five year relationship, and that's something that i've done pretty regularly actually."

Inarticulate Knowledge:

farnam street:

“We know more than we’re able to explain that we know. And I call this inarticulate knowledge — the knowledge that I’m not able to articulate to somebody. And I have inarticulate knowledge about a lot of things, including other people. I could have tacit knowledge of why I trust somebody that I couldn’t explain to you. If you asked me to give you specific things, I wouldn’t be able to point to that, “Oh, there’s that one time when we were hanging out together,” because it’s probably not any one particular thing. It’s probably a series of things, call it a gut feeling. I just have that. And I have the same thing for mistrust. Right? And I think that this kind of tacit knowledge and inarticulate knowledge is undervalued in our society. It’s undervalued because we always want to be able to explain the science and give the hard reasons for it. But a lot of life doesn’t work like that.”

The Mismeasure of Man:

The Mismeasure of Man: Why Intergenerational Occupational Mobility is Much Lower than Conventionally Measured, England, 1800-2021

Gregory Clark, Neil Cummins, Matthew Curtis

Abstract

Using a new database of 1.7 m marriages in England 1837-1939, and a genealogy of 414,000 people in England 1700-2021, we estimate two independent new occupational status indices for England 1800-1939. These new indices show that there was much less social mobility 1800-1939 than previous indices, such as HISCAM, imply. The performance of these two new indices, however, illustrates a general problem with comparing social mobility across time and place using status indices. All such indices embody unknown and varying degrees of error. The more error, the more apparent mobility. So in the paper we develop a way of measuring intergenerational occupational status mobility which eliminates all measurement error. This suggests that intergenerational occupational status persistence in England 1800-2021 was always much greater than conventionally measured, and was largely unchanged over time.

How disgust predicts the adoption of mate shortage solutions

How disgust predicts the adoption of mate shortage solutions

Author links open overlay panel

Kaitlyn P. White, Stanisław K.Czerwiński, Rachel Mulhearn, Peter K.Jonason (2022)

Highlights

(o) Examined willingness to adopt three solutions to mate shortages

(o) Examined how strategies differ as a function of disgust sensitivity

(o) Examined how strategies differ as a function of mating context and sex

(o) Replicated and extended past findings about mate searching strategies and disgust

Abstract

When people cannot find desirable mating prospects, they may abstain, lower their standards, or travel farther to solve this mate shortage. We examined people's (N = 306) willingness to adopt these three solutions to mating shortages in relation to individual differences in disgust in men and women and for long-term and short-term partners. Those with more sexual disgust were more willing to abstain during a shortage of short-term mates and were less willing to lower their standards and to travel farther for short-term partners. Pathogen and moral disgust were associated with choosing to travel farther in the long-term contexts for men only. Our findings support the idea that how people evaluate costs and benefits in mating is expressed in their personality.