Vorhersage:

Um die Zukunft effektiv vorherzusagen, müssen wir:

(1) die Anzahl möglicher Ausgänge sinnvoll einschränken;

(2) die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für mögliche Ausgänge abschätzen;

The Burgher-Civic World

Heiner Rindermann, Cognitive Capitalism, 2018:

'Burgher', 'middle class', 'bourgeois', 'civic' or 'civil' attributes, the terms can be used interchangeably, comprise at their core certain lifestyles, personality traits, forms of society and worldviews:

(o) Appreciation, education and use of thinking, knowledge and rationality (practical use of thinking for problem-solving, planning and calculation, only marginally for free reflection).

(o) Diligence (achievement motivation and behavior).

(o) Order (predictability; reliability; fair-mindedness; emotional regulation, temperance, couth and moderateness, discipline and self-discipline; long-term marriage and familial stability; rule of law in politics).

(o) Meritoric orientations (acknowledgement of and gratification derived from accomplishment; merit-based criteria used in the distribution of jobs, income and reputation; use of achievement measurement).

(o) Beneficial, efficient, thrifty use of resources (in terms of time, raw materials and people).

(o) Rule of law (law-abiding by individuals and institutions; human rights and property rights; related to order at the individual level).

(o) Functional government (effective government and administration orientated towards pragmatism and legal and ethical norms).

(o) Balanced autonomy and freedom (self-responsibility in terms of the individual, family, economy and society, which must sustain themselves, balanced between the individual, family and society).

(o) Realism and pragmatism (realistic orientation in the world and in life; no extremism in thinking and life; common sense, adaptability, functionality, compromise, prudence, foresight).

(o) Burgher worldviews ('Weltanschauung' or orientations that contain the aforementioned attributes as norms and descriptions; rationality, liberty, equality, moderateness, functionality, efficiency, order, meritocracy, responsibility, autonomy).

... Why is the burgher-civic world important for understanding cognitive capitalism, economic development and the development of wealth differences? Because it represents and shapes the orientations, norms, competences and behavior patterns essentially important for creating the peoples, institutions, norms and customs relevant for the modern economy. Without the appreciation, education and use of thinking, knowledge and rationality, without diligence, order, meritoric orientations, the beneficial-efficient-thrifty use of resources, the rule of law, a functional government, autonomy and freedom, realism and pragmatism, and without all of them reinforcing and stabilising burgher worldviews, there is no durable modern society and economy and no self-produced wealth.

Selbstbewusstsein:

Angenommen "Selbstbewusstsein" oder "Stolz" ließen sich als Selbstbejahung verstehen, so ließe sich vermutlich zwischen zwei Komponenten dieser Selbstbejahung unterscheiden:

(o) eine rationale Komponente der Selbstbejahung:

Eine Komponente der Selbstbejahung die beispielsweise einen Rückbezug auf Aussehen, Fähigkeiten, Leistung, Begabung, oder Besitz aufweist.

(o) eine 'irrationale' Komponente der Selbstbejahung:

Selbstbejahung, die gegebenenfalls trotz erheblicher Defizite oder Mängel in Aussehen, in Fähigkeit, in Leistung, Begabung oder Besitz existiert. Die möglicherweise nur deshalb stattfindet, da sich der Mensch über sie überhaupt erst als Person wahrnehmen kann. Und erst durch sie, von einer innerlichen Perspektive aus, ein persönliches und einmaliges Leben leben und gestalten kann.

Weltmodell:

Was zwingt uns, unser Weltmodell zu überarbeiten?

Z.B.: Wenn wir den Eintritt von Ereignissen beobachten, die unserem Weltmodell zufolge nicht, oder mit anderer Häufigkeit eintreten sollten.

Oder wenn wir das Nicht-Eintreten von Ereignissen beobachten, die unserem Weltmodell zufolge eintreten sollten.

Support and Challenge:

Adam Grant / December 2017 - Question Two:

>How do I prevent a support network from turning into an echo chamber?

One of the saddest realities of life is that when the chips are down, we turn to our cheerleaders and drop our critics. We maintain our motivation and sabotage our ability to learn.

To solve this problem, I think we need two different networks: a support network and a challenge network. After the support network helps us rebuild our confidence, the challenge network can step in to keep us honest and push us to improve.<

Decision Method: Throw a Coin but Don’t Look at the Result

Gerd Gigerenzer, Risk Savvy:

"Some people, however, have lost the ability to listen to their inner voice. The voice continues to speak but can no longer be heard. A friend of mine once had two girlfriends—one too many. Ominous clouds of trouble were gathering on the horizon. Still he could not make up his mind. Finally, he recalled what he had learned as a student: Franklin’s bookkeeping method. He sat down and wrote the names of both women on a balance sheet, then drew a line between them. Then he thought of all the reasons for and against each, weighed them, and made the calculation. When he saw the result, something unexpected happened: An inner voice told him that it was not right. His heart had already decided for the other woman.

If you are having difficulties hearing your inner voice, there is a much faster method: Just throw a coin. While it is spinning, you will likely feel which side should not come up. That’s your inner voice. You don’t have to make any complicated calculations to hear it. And you don’t have to bother looking whether heads or tails came up.

Psychological deafness can be the result of a one-sided education in “rational” argumentation. I have seen quite a few cases where people tried to be level-headed and weigh all pros and cons they could think of. But while writing the numbers down, they felt that the answer was not coming out right and simply changed the numbers to make the result fit their intuition."

Lebensgestaltung:

Insgesamt kommt es vermutlich doch darauf an, das Leben aus etwas tieferen Schichten heraus zu gestalten als aus der bewussten Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse.